Zvinotarisirwa nevarimi veRussia zve2019 zvawedzera. Sekureva kwevaongorori, 30% chete emakambani anoona tarisiro yekusimudzira kwakanaka kweiyo agro-indasitiri yakaoma mugore rinouya - ichi ndicho chiratidzo chakaderera pane ese mana apfuura.
Asingasviki chetatu emakambani ane tarisiro nezve tarisiro yekuvandudzwa kwema agro-maindasitiri tata muRussia mugore rinouya. Iyi ndiyo mhedziso yakasvikwa nevanoongorora vekambani inobvunza Deloitte muongororo "Yekurima Musika Ongororo", yakagadzirirwa munaZvita 2018 (inowanikwa kuRBC, ongororo yakaitwa mukota yechina).
Deloitte anga achiita chidzidzo chakadai kubva muna 2015 zvichibva paongororo yemakambani anoshanda mubazi rezvekurima. Zvinoenderana nemhedzisiro yemhinduro dzevakabvunzwa, vaongorori vanoona zviratidzo zveindekisi, iri pakati -1 kusvika 1, apo imwe ndiyo mhedzisiro yakanaka kwazvo. Ndechipi chikonzero chekudzikira kwetarisiro pakati pevarimi veRussia uye ndeapi mamiriro azvino muindasitiri yezvekurima, RBK yakanzwisisa.
Vashoma vane tarisiro
Huwandu hwemakambani ane tarisiro nezve tarisiro yekuvandudzwa kweiyo agro-indasitiri yakaoma mugore rinouya yaderera. Sekureva kwaDeloitte, pamusoro pegore chinongedzo chekuongororwa kwetarisiro yekuvandudzwa kweiyo agro-indasitiri yakaoma yakaderera nezvikamu zvinomwe, kusvika pa7 kubva pa0,10.
"Kekutanga munhoroondo yese yekucherechedza, huwandu hwemakambani ane tarisiro nezve tarisiro yekuvandudzwa kwemaindasitiri ezvekurima muRussia kwegore rinotevera zvadzikira kusvika pa30%," Dmitry Kasatkin, mukuru wezvirongwa zvekutsvaga iyo Deloitte indasitiri nzira, yakatsanangurirwa RBC. Mumakore apfuura, paive nevakawanda veavo vaive netarisiro yakanaka: muna 2017 (tarisiro yegore ra2018) - 45% emakambani ese, uye muna 2016 (yegore ra2017) - 40%. Vazhinji vevakabvunzwa havana kutarisira chero shanduko: mugove wavo wakawedzera nezvikamu gumi nezvitanhatu muzana zvichienzaniswa negore rapfuura, kusvika pa16%.
Zvinetso zvikuru zveindasitiri ndeye kudhura kwemidziyo yesimba, kusakwana kwehurumende rutsigiro nemari, uye kushomeka kwevashandi vanokwanisa, maererano neongororo yeDeloitte muna 2018.
Nei varimi vakawira mukuora mwoyo
Vanoongorora kuDeloitte vanotsanangura tarisiro isina tariro ye2019 ine "yakakwira base": mu2018, rekodhi nhamba yemakambani anoongorora mamiriro azvino mune zvekurima zveRussia zvakanaka (kureva., Pamusoro peavhareji) zvakanyorwa, Kasatkin anodaro. Pakupera kwegore rino, nhamba yavo ichawedzera ne7 pp. uye ichaita 85% yevose vakapindura. Zvekuenzanisa: mu2015, iyo nyika yeRussia agro-indasitiri yakaoma yakaongororwa zvakanaka ne chete 61% yevakapindura. Sekureva kwekuverenga kwaDeloitte, iyo huru sub-indasitiri maererano nekuwedzera purofiti muna 2018 ichave yekurima nguruve, uko purofiti ichakura ne2017% zvichienzaniswa ne79. Kukura mune purofiti kunotarisirwawo mukugadzirwa kwezvirimwa. Muindasitiri yehuku, purofiti inoramba iri padanho razvino, nepo vagadziri vemukaka vari kutarisirwa kudzikira.
Kuderera kwetarisiro pakati pevashandi veRussia "kunoratidzika kunge chokwadi," akadaro muongorori weGazprombank Daria Snitko. Mune maonero ake, zvinotarisirwa nevatori vechikamu zvemusika zvinokanganiswa nezvinhu zviviri. Chekutanga, iyo indasitiri ichiri isina kujekesa kuti chirongwa chitsva chehurumende chekutsigira agro-maindasitiri chichaita sei, chinova chinhu chakakosha chekusimudzira indasitiri nekuvandudza mari. Kunyanya, vatori vechikamu vemusika havanzwisise kuti chii chichaitika kune rubatsiro pasi pechirongwa chehurumende chemari inoshandiswa pakuvaka dzimba dzekudziya. Chinhu chechipiri kutarisira kusava netariro pamusika maererano nezvinodiwa nevatengi.
Tarisiro isina tariro yemakambani ezvekurima ane hukama nemamiriro ezvinhu eupfumi, uye kwete nemamiriro ezvinhu muindasitiri, anodaro Vitaly Sheremet, mukuru wenzvimbo yekugona munzvimbo yezvekurima-maindasitiri KPMG muRussia. "Hupfumi hwese hauna simba uye mari, uye izvi zvinomanikidza varimi," anodaro. Mumakore achangopfuura, chimiro chemurimi chakakura, anodaro Sheremet: ikozvino ivo vanosanganisira kwete avo chete vanoshanda zvakananga pasirese, asi zvakare "neketani rese revagadziri vechikafu kubva kumunda kuenda kukamba." Mamiriro evagadziri vezvigadzirwa zvakapedzwa zvakanaka: kunyanya, vanogadzira zvigadzirwa vakagadzirira kupeta kugadzirwa muna2024, anodaro. Kune vechivanhu varimi-varimi vekudyara, gore rino raive nehupfumi kunyange zviri nani kupfuura zvakapfuura, Sheremet manotsi. Muna 2018, goho rezviyo raisvika matani miriyoni zana negumi, inova iri pasi peyakarekodhwa yegore rapfuura matani emamirioni 110. Nekuda kweizvozvo, mitengo yezviyo yakawedzera: zvinoenderana neyekuongorora sosi ProZerno, kubva muna Zvita 135,4, wechitatu-kirasi gorosi mutengo 14% kupfuura muna Zvita 60 (2017 zviuru zvinopesana ne13,2 zviuru maRuble paTani). Mamiriro ezvinhu nerutsigiro rwehurumende, kana nyika ikasazadzisa zvavakaita kare, zvinogona kunge zvakakanganisa zvinotarisirwa nevarimi vekurima, Sheremet anobvumirana.
Chii chakashata nerutsigiro rwehurumende rwevarimi
Kutsigirwa kweHurumende ndechimwe chezvinhu zvitatu zvakakosha mukukwikwidza kwekurima kweRussia mumisika yepasirese, vatori vechikamu muongororo yeDeloitte vakataura. Muna 2018, varimi vakagutsikana nekugamuchira rubatsiro kupfuura gore rapfuura. Sekureva kwaDeloitte, muna 2018 chiratidzo ichi chakakura ne48% uye chakazosvika pa0,24 (zvakare iine huwandu hwakanyanya hwe1).
Kune 2019 iri kuuya, Bazi rezvekurima rakazivisa huwandu hwerutsigiro rwehurumende runodikanwa kune varimi padanho remakumi matatu nemakumi matatu emabhuru. Iye zvino muRussia pane chirongwa chekusimudzira iyo agro-indasitiri yakaoma kusvika 302. Iko kudiwa kwe "kugadzirisa maitiro ehurongwa hwehurumende hwekuvandudza kurima" kwakaziviswa muna Chikumi neMutevedzeri weGurukota, Alexei Gordeev, anoona nezvekurima. Muchirongwa chitsva chehurumende, kunyanya, zvakarongerwa kushandura nzira dzekupihwa kamwe chete kwerubatsiro uye rubhadharo kubhadhara chikamu chemitengo yakananga, akazivisa mutevedzeri wemusoro webazi rezvekurima Elena Fastova. Shanduko dzinofanirwa kuve dzakanangana nekuwedzera kutengesa kwezvinhu zvekurima kunze kwenyika. Sechikamu chemutemo waMay weMutungamiri Vladimir Putin, panosvika 2020 Russia inofanirwa kuwedzera kuendesa kunze kwenyika zvigadzirwa zvekurima kusvika kumadhora makumi mana nemashanu emadhora.
Kuwedzeredzwa kwekutengeswa kwezvigadzirwa zvekurima mu2018--2024, sekuverenga kwaDeloitte, kuchapa huwandu hwakazara hweGDP kukura kweRUB 7,1 trillion. Hwerengedzo yemutero yakaunganidzwa yakagamuchirwa kubva mukuwedzera mukugadzirwa uye kutengeswa kwezvinhu zvekurima zvichapfuura 1 tiririyoni rubles. Ivhareji pagore kukura kweGDP semhedzisiro yekuwedzera kwekutengesera kunosvika 2024% kusvika 0,3.
Chii chichaitika kune kurima kwepasirese
Mumakore gumi anotevera, kurima kwepasirese kuchakura zvishoma nezvishoma, zvinoenderana nedatha rekudzidza kubva kuOrganisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Ivhareji yegore yekukura mwero ichave 1,5%. Kuwedzera kwekurima kuchasimbiswa munyika dzichiri kusimukira, pamwe nekukurumidza kukurumidza kunotarisirwa muSub-Saharan Africa neSoutheast Asia. Zviri muSoutheast Asia (kusanganisira China, India, Japan neKorea) kuti ingangoita 40% yezviyo zvepasirese (kusanganisira ingangoita 90% yemupunga), inenge 40% yenyama, inopfuura hafu yehuwandu hwemafuta emiriwo, uye ingangoita 70% yehove dzinogadzirwa. ...
Munharaunda yeEastern Europe neCentral Asia, inosanganisira Russia, kugadzirwa kwezvirimwa uye hove zvinokura ne14%. Dunhu rinozosimbisa chinzvimbo chayo seyechipiri mukurima gorosi uye ichaunza mugove wayo wekugadzirwa kwepasirese kusvika ingangoita 2027% na22. Kugadzirwa kwechibage kuchakura ne17%, sunflower uye rapeseed - ne25%.
Kudiwa kwepasirese kwezvigadzirwa zvekurima kuchakurawo zvishoma nezvishoma mumakore gumi anotevera, vaongorori kuDeloitte vanofungidzira. Izvi zvinonyanya kukonzerwa nenyaya yekuti mashandisiro emvura munyika zhinji ave kutosvika pamatanho ekuzadza. Inopfuura hafu yekudyiwa kwekurima kunouya kubva kune zvishanu zvekudya zvekudya: mupunga, chibage, gorosi, mukaka uye zvigadzirwa zvemukaka, uye soya. Kudiwa kwechibage, inopfuura hafu yacho inobva mukudya kwemhuka uye biofuels, inokura paavhareji ye2% pagore. Kunwa kwepasirese kwezvigadzirwa zvemukaka zvitsva uye zvakagadzirwa zvichakura ne2,2% uye 1,7% pagore mumakore gumi anotevera, zvichiteerana.
Munyori: Elena Sukhorukova.
Mamwe mashoko kuRBC: https://www.rbc.ru/